June 10, 2019: Why Things Go Off the Rails

Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World, by Liaquat Ahamen, explores the economics between the two world wars, chiefly through the words and actions of the four central bankers of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. These people had really serious problems: hyper inflation in Germany, arguments over war debt among all the parties, arguments over post-WWI trade, and, of course, the Depression. The bankers were laboring under some misconceptions about monetary policy, as we now know, lamented by John Maynard Keynes, so their own misunderstandings hampered their search for solutions.At the end of his tenure, the British central banker, Montagu Norman (great name and see below; he looks more like a philosopher than a central banker, and perhaps that was the problem), lamented something to the effect of, Nothing we have done made any difference at all. We worked and debated and met and worried and worked and studied, but nothing succeeded.

I am a very proper but very nervous person

The same notion plays itself out in everyday life; this is something I have grown to understand.

An example: Our local library is fantastic. They have everything I want, and, if they don’t, they’ll find it in some other library or actually buy it. The only book they’ve declined to buy is one by a Norwegian detective novelist, whose thriller, Never Fuck Up, I enjoyed, but I understand their hesitation: why did we actually buy this book to begin with?

But on certain days, I drive to the library and can’t find a place to park because the library garden volunteers have blocked off numerous parking spaces. There are no spaces any closer than Safeway, where I could park, but it seems that I ought to be able to park at my library. But no: the gardeners have taken over.

The library is a worthy destination. They have lots of books for me to check out. I understand that they also have programs to attend; I see people in the conference room on occasion. A lot is going on there. They have a great online system; I can put things on hold, they let me know it’s ready, I check it out, and I have an extensive hold list that’s user-friendly.

But nothing can go on if you can’t actually show up and park, can it? I go away and hope that I can find a parking place another time. Again, of course I could park at Safeway, but there’s a principle involved here, isn’t there? What’s wrong with this picture? Have several constituencies lost track of what’s important, what the goal is?

Another example: I was at a neighborhood meeting devoted to emergency procedures and services when the Big One liquifies our soil for miles around. If we’re not dead, the meeting proposed, here are some things we can do.

At some point, the presenter, a man from the Fire Department, in answer to a question by a gentleman sitting near me, started to talk about what one might or might not be able to expect from 911 services when all hell has visited us. That was a good point; of course 911 would be overwhelmed, and probably there is no point in calling them as they know that everyone is in distress anyway.

That simple understanding didn’t satisfy a couple of people, so suddenly the conversation was hijacked to reportage on how 911 had or had not well served our fellow citizens in the past. Now, this is NOT what the meeting was about; we weren’t there to discuss the pros and cons of 911 services. The man who had started this line of discourse murmured to no one and everyone in particular, “I didn’t mean for this to happen.” The audience had forgotten what we were there for.

Well put. The gardeners may not have intended the inconvenience that they visit on everyone, but, you know, couldn’t they have foreseen it? On the other hand, I don’t mean to criticize the gentleman who brought up the 911 subject. It really seems improbable that a lot of anxious older people might go off on 911 simply because it was raised in the context of an earthquake. Things can go off the rails intentionally or not.

OK, my example at the beginning is extreme; the Depression isn’t parking at the library or a neighborhood meeting. But if we can’t figure out a Depression, reparations, and hyper-inflation, how can we expect that our little minds will stay on any track at all?

I read somewhere the theory that in any given generation, there’s only one Galileo, or Euclid, or even Gates who advances human endeavor exponentially. The rest of us, including yours truly, are too dim even to keep on track, to see the big picture: who cares about the library garden if you can’t park there? We’ve already established that 911 won’t be available during an earthquake; why keep blathering on about it in irrelevant ways?

We’re all just along for the ride given by the Galileos. I guess our ambition should be not to slow things down so very much. But it’s a mug’s game. Sadly, we’re not all that bright.